Friday, June 19, 2009

Stock Market -- Position Overview

Our recent newsletter, dated May 15th, stated that the stock market remains within a period of consolidation, as it gradually removes the oversold condition that exist, before resuming the primary bear market decline. We anticipated a DOW trading range for the month between 8,100 and 9,250. The actual result saw the DOW continue to consolidate, within a slightly narrower trading range than forecasted, between 8,099 and 8,591.

We projected that the US treasuries could be price-supported, and anticipated a peak-yield for the US 10-year Note of 3.45%. The forecast proved to be fairly accurate, as the US 10-year Note had a yield range for the month, between 3.08% and 3.75%, as it both rallied and declined in price.

The US dollar was forecasted to decline in value, based on our technical perspective, and projected a euro fx equivalent trading range for the month between $1.32 and $1.40. The actual result did see the US dollar decline during the course of the month, and produced a euro fx equivalent trading range between $1.3247 and $1.4160.